Chapter 5

EVALUATION PROJECTS

                                                                        INTRODUCTION

With the Digital Revolution, predictive analytics looks for future results using data from the past; the models use different methodologies and mathematics with a very similar general objective; there are some techniques that are specific to classification (the results of the model are binary; a yes or a no, in the form of 0 and 1) and others that are regression techniques that allow a value to be predicted. It can also be applied to any type of unknown event in the past, present, or future. The Digital Revolution brings BIG DATA with an abundance of structured variables, such as data tables, and unstructured ones, such as texts, images, or videos that offer new possibilities for prediction. Flexible and heterogeneous prediction rules with proven ability to predict logical outcomes are now built by combining different models, procedures, and data types. Decision Trees, Neural Networks, Support Vector Machines, Bayesian Analysis, Logistic Regression, Linear Regression, Time Series and Data Mining, K-Nearest Neighbors, Ensemble Models, Gradient Boosting, Incremental Response Models, Replace, Introducing Multiple parameters extracted from Big Data, with many advantages over the models traditionally used by statistics. Big Data Analytics is the technology used to analyze a huge amount of structured and unstructured data that is collected, organized, and interpreted by software, transforming it into useful information for decision-making and to generate ideas about market trends. In addition, it contributes to the generation of ideas for new products and services, customer attraction, audience understanding, security, and more benefits to making strategic decisions.

• The solidity of its spiritual values
• Respectfulness
• Honest
• Self-assertiveness
• Conscience watchful
• Free, understanding this freedom as the faculty to do what one must do.
• Humbleness
• He gives a good example
• He commits himself
• He loves his work
• Enthusiastic
• He is punctual in appointments, supplies, commitments, debts, and gives back the telephone calls
• Respect for his acquired qualities
• He knows himself well
• He is truthful (direct, noble, pleasing, faithful, friendly, reliable, and resolved)
• He is intuitive (sense of smell to be a step ahead of the events)
• He’s Patient
• He possesses constructive feedback

In addition to all the qualities that an industrialist must possess he requires the know-how to evaluate projects or at least, are able to understand them for acceptance o rejection.
The certain thing is that we must learn to evaluate projects, and determine the proportions objectively to have an action guide.   Why undertake something, if the calculations show us that it is merely a business?   On the other hand, if these, calculations elaborated in the most cautious way indicate a good alternative yield why not execute it?

The crisis of the year 2020, caused by the COVD-19 pandemic or coronavirus, requires, among others, a lot of imagination to propose alternatives at the individual or group level, whose correct evaluation constitutes a basic tool for making sound decisions.

1. BASIC PRINCIPLES

2. PROCEDURE

• Net present value (VPN)
• Internal rate of return (TIR)
• Period of recovery

A. PROJECTIONS: the important thing is the estimation of the future income using sustainable criteria for the particular situation. It is not the same to project the future income in a cattle ranch that in cultures of neither delayed yield; nor it can be the same in chicken farms as the operation of a mine. The clear message consists of recognizing that the essential to project income, which is the knowledge of the business, considering its own factors of the particular case and the conditions of the industry in which it operates.
In the estimation of income, the financiers must act like advisers of those who know the business. The debits, by their condition of so, are easier to predict with a high degree of certainty.
In the income it is recommended to build with caution (conservative) and in the debits, covering and projecting in sub-optimal conditions, for this way of handling the operative risk in a practical way.   Knowing income and debits we elaborate a cash flow according to the model of "josavere" because it has the advantage to be prioritizing payments and in addition, it constitutes a base to structure a model of the easily auditable treasury, which allows the policies drawn up by the management are accomplished.
The model is constructed as follows: 
Income: organizing them by periods according to the business individually. 
Debits: classifying them as follows

• Investments
• Fiscal
• Labor
• Operation
• Suppliers
• Service to the debt

With the balances that show the periodic numbers, we have like establish if the balances are positive or negative and to take the accumulated figure during the life of the project, considering the adjustments of price and the increases in the different headings from debits, which can be bound to the inflation, the devaluation of both variables simultaneously.

B. TO CARRY OUT CALCULUS: like explain it in the chapter about financial function (book one) in which the different alternatives to evaluate projects.
Based on the knowledge exposed defined a method to use according to the characteristics of the particular case, which summary is as follows:
If one is a project of fast recovery, in a stable economy and with healthy currency, we can use the period of recovery of the investment or the accounting rate of yield.
If one is a project of delayed yield or long life profit, independently of the macroeconomic conditions it must use TIR (internal rate of return) or VPN (net present value). Both methods must take to us to the conclusion, safe in case of mutually excluding projects.
The TIR compares with the rate of cut or the minimum rate of return of the company. If the VPN is positive, indicates that the project, is acceptable mathematically, the greater the amount, the better.

C. EXCLUDING AND DEPENDENT PROPOSALS: when two projects are mutually excluding employees, the VPN is better than the internal rate of return like defect acceptance number. Both must reach the same conclusion (acceptance or rejection).
The calculations would consider this in Excel:

D. JUDICIOUS EVALUATION OF THE RESULTS: taking care of the capacity to generate cash because what is worth in finances it is the treasury and not the accounting results. The exceptionally good businesses appear in very few and rare occasions reason why we must use indicators that allow us to carry out Benchmarking taking care of the irreversible phenomenon of globalization.